Will the Stock Market Crash in 2026? Warren Buffett Has Smart Advice for Investors.

3 weeks ago 10

Trevor Jennewine, The Motley Fool

Tue, January 13, 2026 astatine 3:25 AM CST 5 min read

President Trump's tariffs person coincided with a weakening jobs market, and galore experts deliberation his commercialized policies volition beryllium a headwind to economical growth.
Warren Buffett admits helium cannot foretell short-term movements successful the banal market, but his contrarian doctrine says investors should beryllium fearful erstwhile others are greedy.
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has been a nett seller of banal for 3 consecutive years, suggesting that reasonably priced buying opportunities person been hard to find.
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The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has delivered double-digit returns successful 3 consecutive years, thing that has historically preceded lackluster returns successful the 4th year.

A down twelvemonth is peculiarly plausible successful 2026 owed to President Trump's tariffs. His commercialized policies person already coincided with a weakening jobs market, and caller Federal Reserve probe indicates that tariffs person historically been a headwind to economical growth.

Will the banal marketplace clang successful 2026? Consider Warren Buffett's words and actions.

A banal terms illustration shown successful alarming red.

The Great Recession started successful Q4 2007. It was caused by the illness of the U.S. lodging bubble, which itself was driven by lax lending standards connected risky subprime mortgages. That indebtedness was bundled and sold arsenic mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to banks and different organization investors, spreading hazard passim the fiscal system.

Wall Street was panicking by Q4 2008. Those MBS had plummeted successful worth arsenic borrowers defaulted, triggering bankruptcies and near-failures that forced the authorities to bail retired dozens (if not hundreds) of fiscal institutions. In October 2008, with the S&P 500 down 40% from its high, Warren Buffett commented connected the concern successful an editorial portion successful The New York Times. Two quotes are peculiarly salient today.

"Let maine beryllium wide connected 1 point: I can't foretell the short-term movements of the banal market. I haven't the faintest thought arsenic to whether stocks volition beryllium higher oregon little a period oregon a twelvemonth from now."
"A elemental regularisation dictates my buying: Be fearful erstwhile others are greedy, and beryllium greedy erstwhile others are fearful."

The archetypal punctuation teaches that predicting short-term movements successful the marketplace is impossible, adjacent for the astir palmy investors. In fact, Buffett erstwhile compared short-term marketplace forecasts to "poison." He encouraged investors to disregard specified things and absorption alternatively connected buying understandable stocks astatine tenable prices, truthful agelong arsenic their net are apt to beryllium "materially higher five, 10, and 20 years from now."