Up 58% in 2026, Is It Too Late to Buy Occidental Petroleum?

Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) has climbed 58% year-to-date, moving from $40.92 astatine the extremity of 2025 to $64.36 arsenic of March 26. If you watched from the sidelines, the question is obvious: Is determination thing left, oregon did you miss it?

OXY carries a premium valuation. The banal trades astatine a trailing P/E of 47x and a guardant P/E of 20x, lone 1 of which is elevated for an vigor shaper whose net fluctuate with commodity prices. The statement expert terms people sits astatine $58.42, already beneath wherever shares commercialized today. Most of Wall Street is successful Hold territory, with 16 analysts standing it Hold, 5 Buy, and 4 Sell oregon Strong Sell.

The valuation representation gets much nuanced erstwhile you origin successful structural changes. The merchantability of OxyChem to Berkshire Hathaway, which closed January 2, 2026 allowed Occidental to chopped main indebtedness by $5.8 cardinal since mid-December 2025, bringing full main indebtedness to $15.0 billion. That deleveraging is existent and durable, changing the equity's hazard illustration successful ways trailing net multiples lone partially capture. Wells Fargo issued a treble upgrade to Overweight with a $69 terms target, and Piper Sandler followed with an Overweight standing and a $66 target.

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The astir important adaptable for OXY is WTI crude. Oil precocious spiked to $98.71 per tube connected March 20 earlier pulling backmost to $89.33 connected March 23, compared to astir $70 per tube a twelvemonth ago. For Occidental, this matters much than for galore peers fixed the company's outgo structure.

Occidental's breakeven terms to make affirmative nett contiguous worth connected a well-by-well ground sits astir $38 per barrel, and 84% of its full assets basal breaks adjacent beneath $50 per barrel. At existent WTI levels, the dispersed betwixt breakeven and realized terms is wide. Higher realized prices per tube travel straight into gross with comparatively fixed accumulation costs, which means expanded nett margins and substantially higher escaped currency travel astatine elevated lipid prices. Full-year 2025 operating currency travel came successful astatine $10.532 billion, generated successful an situation wherever Q4 realized crude averaged lone $59.22 per barrel. With WTI moving materially higher, currency procreation improves significantly.