Trump Says Prediction Markets Beat 'Fake Polls'—And HOOD, CME Race To Cash In On The Boom

Donald Trump said that prediction markets “predicted maine beauteous right… by a landslide,” calling them amended than “fake polls.”

The endorsement lands arsenic the manufacture races past $17 cardinal successful monthly measurement portion warring transgression charges and aggregate legislature bills simultaneously.

Trump made the comments successful a telephone telephone with NYU instrumentality chap Max Raskin.

A 2025 Vanderbilt survey backs Trump’s claim, uncovering Polymarket outperformed polling successful plaything states during the 2024 election. After the July 2024 assassination attempt, traders repriced Trump’s likelihood instantly. Polls didn’t budge.

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CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, a Trump appointee, has matched the tone. He filed an amicus little successful the 9th Circuit asserting exclusive national jurisdiction implicit prediction markets and called authorities enforcement actions a “power grab.”

Robinhood Markets CEO Vlad Tenev has called prediction markets the fastest-growing concern successful institution history, with a gross tally complaint supra $300 million.

The institution moved implicit 4 cardinal lawsuit contracts successful January alone.

Tenev said helium wants prediction markets embedded straight connected idiosyncratic banal pages, calling banal terms an “imperfect proxy” for a circumstantial EPS oregon gross outcome. If that ships, each net play becomes a prediction marketplace lawsuit and HOOD clips a interest connected some sides.

CME Group deed 100 cardinal lawsuit contracts traded successful conscionable 8 weeks earlier this year, powering Flutter Entertainment’s FanDuel Predicts app.

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At slightest 5 bills targeting prediction markets landed successful Congress this month.

The Schiff-Curtis “Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act” goes aft sports contracts. Sen. Chris Murphy’s (D-CT) BETS OFF Act targets warfare and authorities enactment bets.

Sens. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) and Andy Kim (D-NJ) privation to manus powerfulness backmost to states. Merkley-Klobuchar would barroom elected officials from trading entirely.

And today, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-CA), Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR), and Rep. Jamie Raskin dropped the STOP Corrupt Bets Act, the broadest yet, covering elections, sports, warfare and authorities actions.

None of them are going anywhere, according to TD Cowen expert Jaret Seiberg, who called them “messaging bills.”

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A veto is near-certain fixed Donald Trump Jr. sits connected the advisory boards of some Kalshi and Polymarket, but Seiberg flagged 2028 arsenic the existent threat: a Democratic White House could flip the regulatory scenery overnight.