Trump’s War on Iran Could Screw Over US Farmers

Global lipid and state prices person skyrocketed pursuing the US onslaught connected Iran past weekend. But different cardinal planetary proviso concatenation is besides astatine risk, 1 that whitethorn straight interaction American farmers who person already been squeezed for months by tariff wars. The struggle successful the Middle East is choking planetary supplies of fertilizer close earlier the important outpouring planting season.

“This virtually could not beryllium happening astatine a worse time,” says Josh Linville, the vice president of fertilizer astatine fiscal services institution StoneX.

The planetary fertilizer marketplace focuses connected 3 main macronutrients: phosphates, nitrogen, and potash. All of them are produced successful antithetic ways, with antithetic countries starring successful exports. Farmers see a assortment of factors, including harvest benignant and ungraded conditions, erstwhile deciding which of these types of fertilizer to use to their fields.

Potash and phosphates are some mined from antithetic kinds of earthy deposits; nitrogen fertilizers, by contrast, are produced with earthy gas. QatarLNG, a subsidiary of Qatar Energy, a state-run lipid and state company, said connected Monday that it would halt accumulation pursuing drone strikes connected immoderate of its facilities. This efficaciously took astir a 5th of the world’s earthy state proviso offline, causing state prices successful Europe to spike.

That shutdown puts supplies of urea, a fashionable benignant of nitrogen fertilizer, peculiarly astatine risk. On Tuesday, Qatar Energy said that it would besides halt accumulation of downstream products, including urea. Qatar was the second-largest exporter of urea successful 2024. (Iran was the third-largest; it’s besides a cardinal exporter of ammonia, different benignant of nitrogen fertilizer.) Prices connected urea sold successful the US retired of New Orleans, a cardinal commodity port, were up astir 15 percent connected Monday compared to prices past week, according to information provided by Linville to WIRED. The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is besides preventing different countries successful the portion from exporting nitrogen products.

“When we look astatine ammonia, we're looking astatine astir 30 percent of planetary accumulation being either progressive oregon astatine hazard successful this conflict,” says Veronica Nigh, a elder economist astatine the Fertilizer Institute, a US-based manufacture advocacy organization. “It gets worse erstwhile we deliberation astir urea. Urea is astir 50 percent.”

Other types of fertilizer are besides astatine risk. Saudi Arabia, Nigh says, supplies astir 40 percent of each US phosphate imports; taking them retired of the equation for much than a fewer days could make “a truly challenging situation” for the US. Other countries successful the region, including Jordan, Egypt, and Israel, besides play a large relation successful these markets.

“We are already proceeding reports that immoderate of those Persian Gulf manufacturers are shutting down production, due to the fact that they're saying, ‘I person a finite magnitude of retention for my supply,’” Linville says. “‘Once I scope the apical of it, I can't bash thing else. So I'm going to unopen down my accumulation successful bid to marque definite I don't spell implicit supra that.’"

Conflict successful the strait has intensified successful the aboriginal portion of this week, arsenic the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps person reportedly threatened immoderate vessel passing done the strait. Traffic has slowed to a crawl. The Trump medication announced initiatives connected Tuesday meant to support lipid tankers traveling done the strait, including providing a naval escort. Even if those initiatives succeed—which the shipping manufacture has expressed uncertainty about—much of the archetypal vigor volition astir apt spell toward shepherding lipid and state assets retired of the region.

“Fertilizer is not going to beryllium the astir invaluable happening that's gonna transit the strait,” says Nigh.