Top Value Investor Says Adobe Stock Is ‘Very Compelling’ Despite AI Threat

Value capitalist Tobias Carlisle made a contrarian lawsuit for Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) connected a caller occurrence of The Investor's Podcast, telling co-hosts Stig Brodersen and Hari Ramachandra that "I deliberation the valuation's precise compelling" and pointing to a "big discount" and "a batch of buybacks" astatine the originative bundle giant.

Carlisle's transportation lands astatine a clip erstwhile the banal has intelligibly fallen retired of favor. Adobe shares closed astatine $195.16 connected Thursday, June 18, 2026, down 44.24% year-to-date and 48.38% implicit the past year. The marketplace headdress present sits adjacent $77.58 billion, with the banal trading astatine a guardant P/E of 8 and a PEG ratio of conscionable 0.53.

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The AI Question astatine the Heart of the Thesis

Carlisle's statement hinges connected an unfastened question: whether generative AI yet disrupts Adobe's halfway editing tools oregon gives the institution a tailwind. "Maybe that's wherever Adobe truly shines, that you tin bash each of the thought instauration and truly elemental worldly successful ChatGPT oregon immoderate LLM you use," helium said, portion analyzable editing remains Adobe's domain. He grouped Adobe alongside Booking Holdings (NASDAQ:BKNG) arsenic some being established bundle platforms facing existential questions from generative AI.

He framed the discount that some stocks are seeing arsenic compensation for that uncertainty: "If it is benignant of impermanent oregon they tin accommodate oregon beryllium beneficiaries, past you're getting a bully price. You're getting a bully handicap terms to instrumentality it connected here."

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Adobe's Recent Results

In Q2 FY2026, the institution posted grounds gross of $6.62 billion, up 13% twelvemonth implicit year, with non-GAAP diluted EPS of $5.96. AI-first ARR tripled twelvemonth implicit year, exceeding $500 million, and full Adobe ARR reached $27.10 billion. Management raised full-year guidance to $26.50 cardinal to $26.60 cardinal successful gross and non-GAAP EPS of $24.35 to $24.45.

On the buyback front, Carlisle flagged, Adobe repurchased astir 8.5 cardinal shares for $2.111 billion during Q2, pursuing astir 8.1 cardinal shares for $2.478 cardinal successful Q1. Operating currency travel reached $2.17 billion successful the quarter, giving absorption ample country to support shrinking the stock number astatine depressed prices.