The 2022 Bitcoin Pattern Is Back — and the Second Drop Was Worse Than the First

Joel South

Sun, May 24, 2026 astatine 3:37 PM CDT 4 min read

Quick Read

• MicroStrategy (MSTR) holds 713,502 bitcoins with a $54.26B outgo ground and reported a $12.44B nett nonaccomplishment successful Q4 2025 from unrealized integer plus losses, with the banal down 60% implicit the past twelvemonth to $159.89. Polymarket traders delegate a 79% probability that MicroStrategy sells immoderate Bitcoin by year-end 2026.

• Bitcoin’s existent terms enactment mirrors the 2022 carnivore emblem signifier that preceded a deeper 62% capitulation, and a breakdown beneath the 200-day moving mean could propulsion Bitcoin to $40K oregon lower, forcing MicroStrategy to take betwixt borderline unit and discretionary plus sales.

• The expert who called NVIDIA successful 2010 conscionable named his apical 10 stocks and MicroStrategy wasn't 1 of them. Get them present FREE.

Ran Neuner sat down with Scott Melker connected The Wolf Of All Streets podcast and laid retired a illustration signifier that should marque each Bitcoin bull pause. The occurrence rubric says it plainly: "Bitcoin To $40K? Saylor's Big Bet Is Breaking." The thesis hinges connected a azygous uncomfortable reflection astir 2022 that astir investors person forgotten: the 2nd limb down was importantly worse than the first.

The 2022 Pattern, Step by Step

Neuner walked done the structure: "If you look astatine 2022 again, you had similar the drop, you had the carnivore flag, you had the drop, you had a carnivore emblem again, past you really had the precise large drop."

The numbers down that series matter. The archetypal driblet successful 2022 was astir 43%. The 2nd drop, which came aft Bitcoin retested the carnivore emblem and tagged the 200-day moving average, was astir 62%. That is the portion the bulls thin to gloss over. The signifier did not exhaust itself connected the archetypal flush. The Luna/Terra lawsuit successful May acceptable the stage, and the FTX illness successful November delivered the deeper wound.

The expert who called NVIDIA successful 2010 conscionable named his apical 10 stocks and MicroStrategy wasn't 1 of them. Get them present FREE.

Today's Mirror Image

Neuner's framing of the existent illustration was direct: "Now let's spell backmost to today's chart. And unfortunately, it looks similar a reflector image." Bitcoin has conscionable kissed the 200-day moving mean and fallen backmost into a carnivore flag, the aforesaid setup that preceded the larger 2022 capitulation. As helium enactment it, "If it looks similar a duck and it walks similar a duck and it quacks similar a duck, past you gotta marque an presumption that it's astir apt a duck."

The terms enactment supports the structural concern. Bitcoin trades astatine $76,600.87 arsenic of May 24, 2026, down 12% twelvemonth to day and 29% implicit the past twelvemonth from a starting constituent of $107,794.01. Polymarket's $75,000 dip marketplace for May already resolved YES, confirming the downside trial has begun.