Tesla vs. Rivian: Which EV Stock Will Outperform in 2026?

• Tesla's 2026 banal show volition astir apt revolve astir its robotaxi ambitions.

• Rivian's 2026 show hinges connected the motorboat of its caller R2 SUV.

• 10 stocks we similar amended than Rivian Automotive ›

The apical electrical conveyance (EV) shaper successful the satellite remains Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), but contention has been expanding from upstarts similar Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN). Both stocks experienced a batch of ups and downs successful 2025, but it is Rivian volition beryllium the best-performing banal this year, with its stock terms up much than 23% twelvemonth to day arsenic of this writing, compared to astir a 10% summation for Tesla.

But that's past performance. Let's analyse which banal looks poised to outperform successful 2026.

2025 was a unsmooth twelvemonth for Tesla operationally -- its gross dropped some successful Q1 and Q2, arsenic its automotive deliveries fell. It did spot a bounce-back successful gross and car deliveries successful Q3 up of the extremity of the national taxation recognition for EVs, though its adjusted net per stock (EPS) plunged 31% and it felt gross borderline pressure, arsenic the merchantability of 100% borderline regulatory credits dried up.

How the banal performs successful 2026 volition apt travel down to the advancement it makes successful its robotaxi business. Tesla is presently investigating its cybercab concern successful Austin, Texas, though the aviator is presently constricted to a geofenced information of the metropolis and requires a information operator to beryllium successful the vehicle. CEO Elon Musk has said that Tesla's robotaxis volition beryllium afloat autonomous successful Austin by year-end, and helium precocious reiterated that stance with the extremity of the twelvemonth astir 3 weeks away.

Musk has besides precocious said helium is looking to treble the size of Tesla's Austin robotaxi fleet this month. That would bring the full to astir 60 vehicles. However, that is good beneath the 500 cybercabs that Musk earlier projected to beryllium operating successful Austin this year. He besides predicted that Tesla would person astir 1,000 robotaxis operating successful the San Francisco Bay country by the extremity of 2025, but it has not been fixed a licence to run successful the authorities of California yet. If Tesla tin commencement delivering connected these promises, though, adjacent if a spot delayed, the banal should person bully upside from here.

Rivian made large strides successful 2025. It turned successful 2 consecutive quarters of affirmative gross margins successful Q1, unlocking a $1 cardinal equity concern from Volkswagen, and past was capable to shingle disconnected tariff and proviso concatenation pressures to besides crook a gross nett successful Q3.

The institution has done a large occupation of lowering the outgo to marque its vehicles by revamping its SUV's interior plan and improving its manufacturing process. The biggest cardinal was switching to a zonal architecture system, which greatly reduced the fig of physics power units and wiring successful its vehicles. This exertion besides helped spur its concern and associated task with Volkswagen.