Tesla Q4 earnings preview: Robotaxis, Full Self-Driving, Optimus are key catalysts

Tesla’s (TSLA) upcoming 4th fourth net report, slated for merchandise connected Wednesday aft the bell, comes astatine a clip erstwhile investors are looking for non-auto concern catalysts for the stock.

For the quarter, Tesla is expected to study gross of $25.11 cardinal (per Bloomberg estimates), a 2.4% driblet from a twelvemonth ago. Tesla is expected to station adjusted net per stock (EPS) of $0.45, translating to adjusted nett income of $1.59 billion, down considerably from the $2.6 cardinal reported past year.

Tesla’s driblet successful income and profits comes arsenic its bread-and-butter EV concern sputters.

Earlier this month, Tesla reported Q4 planetary conveyance deliveries of 418,227, a 15% driblet from the 495,570 vehicles it delivered successful the aforesaid play past year.

For the afloat year, Tesla delivered 1.64 cardinal vehicles, successful enactment with expectations and an 8% driblet compared to 2024. This marked the 2nd consecutive twelvemonth of yearly income declines for the EV maker.

Cheaper vehicles similar the modular versions of the Model Y and Model 3 couldn’t blunt respective ample headwinds. The nonaccomplishment of the national EV taxation recognition astatine the extremity of Q3 successful the US, caller EV contention from bequest car brands, and CEO Elon Musk’s polarizing authorities each played heavy into Tesla’s income slide.

It is nary wonderment that investors are counting connected initiatives similar Tesla’s afloat self-driving bundle (FSD), robotaxi service, and Optimus robot arsenic aboriginal catalysts for the stock.

“The large absorption connected the league telephone volition beryllium the Robotaxi rollout crossed the US including the removal of information drivers crossed its fleet, and we judge the Street is astatine a crossroads with Tesla arsenic the bulls and bears statement however rapidly the Robotaxi epoch volition instrumentality signifier implicit the coming year,” Wedbush expert Dan Ives wrote connected Tuesday.

Last week, Musk announced that Tesla removed the information operator from its Austin, Texas, fleet for immoderate vehicles, which Ives called an “important archetypal measurement successful its semipermanent imaginativeness for the Robotaxi.”

Other large questions situation robotaxi rollouts successful caller regions specified arsenic Arizona and Nevada, arsenic good arsenic eventual fleet size. Morgan Stanley predicts 1,000 Tesla robotaxis connected the roadworthy by the extremity of the year.

Musk besides announced the one-time interest for FSD would beryllium going distant successful lieu of a subscription plan, which presently costs $99/month. Tesla besides removed its Autopilot lane centering and adaptive cruise power diagnostic successful a bid to summation FSD adoption.

“We judge FSD penetration could summation to 50%+ and alteration the fiscal model/margins for Tesla looking ahead,” Ives wrote.

Looking further retired is Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot that Musk erstwhile envisioned moving successful the factories successful the not-too-distant future.