Tech bull Ives initiates SpaceX with Outperform rating, $190 price target

Tech bull Dan Ives of Wedbush initiated sum of SpaceX (SPCX) with an Outperform standing and a $190 terms target, weighing successful connected a banal that has whipsawed investors successful the 3 weeks since its record-setting archetypal nationalist offering. Ives sees SpaceX arsenic a subordinate successful the hyperscaler wars too. 

Ives and the Wedbush squad spot SpaceX arsenic a three-way stake connected launch, connectivity, and artificial intelligence. SpaceX is "one of the astir differentiated assets wrong the tech market," Ives wrote, and is "well-positioned to go a large hyperscaler with its vertically integrated level crossed connectivity, launch, and AI infrastructure." 

The $190 people implies astir 12% upside from Tuesday's adjacent of $171, but the banal dipped successful aboriginal commercialized Wednesday.

Today's weakness aside, Ives built his bull lawsuit connected the 3 concern lines separately. 

Starlink, the outer broadband unit, remains the nett engine, with astir 12 cardinal subscribers arsenic of June 5 and mean gross per idiosyncratic adjacent $66. He argued the institution holds little than 1% of the planetary telecom and broadband market, leaving a agelong runway. 

The motorboat business, by contrast, helium described little arsenic a nett excavation than arsenic an interior outgo halfway (though efficient) that makes everything other possible. SpaceX flew astir 170 missions successful 2025 and lofted 2,213 metric tons to orbit, much than the remainder of the satellite combined, leaving it "less the starring supplier than the marketplace itself, with everyone other competing for the remainder."

Ives reserved his richest valuation aggregate for AI and compute, the vertical helium said anchors the sum-of-the-parts, arsenic did SpaceX did itself successful its IPO prospectus. That concern precocious booked large compute deals successful the vicinity of $28 cardinal annually, led by deals with Anthropic and Google utilizing SpaceX's Colossus information centers for AI compute for products similar Claude and Gemini, respectively. 

The alleged hyperscalers similar Amazon (AMZN) AWS, Microsoft (MSFT) Azure, and Google's (GOOGL) Cloud portion tally global, multi-client unreality platforms offering self-service and a bundle stack (databases, networking, managed services) sold connected demand. Ives admits that SpaceX is not a accepted hypescaler arsenic it doesn't connection each the solutions of accidental AWS oregon Azure, but it tin rent retired its compute cluster, offloading excess compute arsenic a gross generator. 

SpaceX's vantage is that it owns a gigawatt-scale compute cluster, Ives said, and the institution tin physique much of it faster and cheaper than anyone else. The drawbacks with its compute deals are that they are cancellable wrong 90 days, truthful not arsenic durable arsenic accepted multi-year deals.