Polymarket Makes Bitcoin and Ether Volatility Tradable With New Volmex-Based Markets

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket conscionable listed volatility markets, not terms markets. Resolution is tied to Volmex BVIV/EVIV “High” values connected one-minute candles.

• Settlement is narrowly defined. Polymarket says it volition lone usage Volmex’s charts and settings for resolution.

• This is simply a stake connected stress, not direction. Volmex indices purpose to measurement 30-day implied volatility from options data, which tin spike successful some rallies and drawdowns.

Decentralized betting level Polymarket has launched caller markets that fto traders stake connected whether Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) volatility volition deed circumstantial levels successful 2026, utilizing Volmex’s 30-day implied volatility indices arsenic the colony source.

Instead of betting connected wherever BTC oregon ETH land, these contracts stake connected thing else: volition the marketplace get chaotic capable for volatility to interaction a acceptable level astatine immoderate constituent this year?

The markets are framed arsenic “What volition the Bitcoin Volatility Index deed successful 2026?” and “What volition the Ethereum Volatility Index deed successful 2026?” with aggregate thresholds traders tin take from.

For Bitcoin, Polymarket’s rules accidental each threshold resolves “Yes” if immoderate 1-minute candle “High” connected Volmex’s Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index (BVIV) is adjacent to oregon supra the level named successful the declaration title.

For Ethereum, the rules usage the aforesaid structure, keyed to the Ethereum Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index.

The solution model runs from Jan. 26, 2026, done Dec. 31, 2026 (Eastern Time).

Settlement is anchored to Volmex’s illustration pages, and different indices are not utilized for resolution.

Volatility indices are designed to compress a messy options marketplace awesome into a azygous number.

They purpose to estimation the market’s anticipation of aboriginal terms swings, alternatively than direction.

Volmex says its BVIV and EVIV indices way 30-day implied volatility utilizing options data, past use filtering and smoothing steps to nutrient the last measure.

That makes these contracts antithetic from a elemental “BTC to $X” trade. A trader tin beryllium close that volatility spikes adjacent if the spot terms ends the twelvemonth adjacent wherever it started.

It besides means the aforesaid volatility spike tin get successful antithetic ways. A crisp rally tin bash it. A accelerated selloff tin bash it. A choppy authorities with repeated liquidations tin bash it too.

Early trading suggested a meaningful probability of a ample volatility jump.

For Bitcoin, pricing implied astir a 35% accidental that BVIV would scope 80 successful 2026, with BVIV adjacent 40 astatine the time. In plain terms, traders were assigning notable likelihood to volatility astir doubling astatine immoderate constituent this year.