'No Reasonable Scenario' Forces Strategy To Sell Bitcoin As $440 Target Stands: TD Cowen

Strategy Inc (NASDAQ:MSTR) shares surged 22% Friday arsenic TD Cowen maintained its $440 terms target, arguing determination is “no tenable scenario” forcing the institution to merchantability Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) contempt trading underwater connected its holdings.

TD Cowen analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete said Strategy is “better positioned than ever” to enactment successful a imaginable recovery, adjacent arsenic the premise looks strained amid steep declines. The company’s shares are down 13.4% truthful acold successful 2026, adding to a 47.5% slump past year.

The volatility looks intentional ― analysts noted Strategy’s communal banal is designed to beryllium astir 1.5 times much volatile than Bitcoin.

“It should travel arsenic nary astonishment that Strategy’s shares outperform Bitcoin erstwhile the terms rises, and underperform erstwhile falling. This is, successful fact, by design,” they said.

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On solvency concerns, TD Cowen argued Strategy has the “wherewithal to thrust retired a hypothetically overmuch steeper Bitcoin rout.”

They pointed to the company’s $2.25 cardinal currency reserve that could money $900 cardinal successful fixed charges for astir 17 months portion covering $1 cardinal of convertible notes putable successful 2027.

The earliest occupation constituent appears successful March 2028, erstwhile further convertibles mature oregon go putable.

Moreover, TD Cowen maintained Bitcoin terms targets astatine $177,000 by December 2026 and $226,000 by December 2027.

TD Cowen’s presumption aligns with caller Strategy enforcement comments.

On the Q4 net telephone revealing $126 cardinal successful losses, CEO Phong Le said Bitcoin would request to autumn to astir $8,000 and stay determination for 5 to six years earlier Strategy faces trouble servicing convertible debt.

Executive Chairman Michael Saylor reiterated the superior operation is designed to withstand extended volatility, dismissing quantum computing threats arsenic “horrible FUD.”

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TD Cowen highlighted Strategy’s emerging “digital recognition engine” arsenic a cardinal thesis component.

The institution raised implicit $7 cardinal of preferred equity successful fiscal 2025, representing 33% of each preferred equity sold successful the U.S.

The firm’s STRC preferred banal pays an 11.25% annualized dividend complaint with regular liquidity supra $118 million, providing an alternate backing mechanics beyond convertible debt.