Netflix Just Raised Guidance. The Market Sold It Off. We See 283% Upside

2 days ago 10

Vandita Jadeja

Thu, May 14, 2026 astatine 10:36 AM CDT 4 min read

Quick Read

Netflix (NFLX) reported Q1 2026 gross of $12.25B, up 16.19% YoY and beating estimates, with escaped currency travel surging 91.44% to $5.09B contempt an EPS miss; the advertisement concern is scaling rapidly with implicit 4,000 advertisers and 60% of caller sign-ups successful advertisement markets choosing the cheaper tier.
Netflix faces a 28x trailing P/E valuation against intensifying contention from tech giants, caller EPS misses driven by Brazilian taxation charges, and Polymarket traders assigning lone 18% likelihood the banal finishes supra $90 this week, though management’s $12.5B 2026 FCF guidance and expanding advertisement gross supply a bullish counterweight.
The expert who called NVIDIA successful 2010 conscionable named his apical 10 stocks and Netflix wasn't 1 of them. Get them present FREE.

Few stocks person whipsawed investors successful 2026 the mode Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) has. Shares plunged from $126.03 successful July 2025 to a $77 trough successful February 2026, past clawed backmost to $88.27 arsenic of May 6. Our 24/7 Wall St. terms people for Netflix is $338.63, implying 283.63% upside. The proposal is bargain astatine 90% confidence.

Metric

Value

Current Price	$88.27
24/7 Wall St. Price Target	$338.63
Upside	283.63%
Recommendation	BUY
Confidence	90%

From a $77 Trough to a Q1 Beat

Netflix shares are down 10.78% implicit the past month, 5.86% twelvemonth to date, and 22.41% implicit the trailing year, sitting 15% beneath the $134.12 52-week high. The selloff accelerated aft the April 16, 2026 Q1 net report, wherever shares fell from $107.99 astatine filing to $97.86 wrong an hour.

The expert who called NVIDIA successful 2010 conscionable named his apical 10 stocks and Netflix wasn't 1 of them. Get them present FREE.

Q1 gross deed $12.25 billion, up 16.19% YoY and beating estimates by 0.63%. EPS of $1.23 came successful airy versus the $1.34 consensus, missing expectations by 8.55%. Net income of $5.28 cardinal was inflated by the $2.80 cardinal Warner Bros. termination fee, but escaped currency travel of $5.09 cardinal inactive grew 91.44%. Management raised 2026 escaped currency travel guidance to $12.5 cardinal and reaffirmed an operating borderline people of 31.5%.

The Case for $350+

The bull thesis rests connected Netflix's advertisement concern doubling to $3 cardinal successful 2026, with implicit 60% of Q1 sign-ups successful advertisement markets choosing the cheaper tier and advertiser number up 70% YoY to implicit 4,000. Membership crossed 325 million, yet penetration sits astatine little than 45% of broadband households globally.

Live events (NFL, Tyson Fury vs. Anthony Joshua), Netflix Playground gaming, the InterPositive GenAI acquisition, and a contented slate including Greta Gerwig's Narnia and David Fincher projects widen the runway. Of 51 covering analysts, 37 complaint it Buy oregon amended with lone 1 Strong Sell. Our bull lawsuit script points to $353.86.

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