MP Materials shares supported by electrification, drone optimism despite demand risks – Jefferies

Proactive

Fri, April 17, 2026 astatine 11:40 AM CDT 2 min read

MP Materials (NYSE:MP) shares are being underpinned by semipermanent electrification trends and emerging defence applications, adjacent arsenic near-term request risks from user electronics and electrical vehicles proceed to unreality the outlook, according to Jefferies.

The steadfast adjusted its exemplary to exclude incremental equilibrium expanse deployment beyond existing projects, estimating MP has astir $6 cardinal of fiscal flexibility implicit the adjacent decade.

Analysts judge the existent stock terms reflects existing enslaved yields, a semipermanent NdPr terms presumption of astir $90/kg, and astir a 13% IRR connected caller projects.

Sensitivity investigation shows meaningful upside potential: a 5% summation successful IRR could adhd astir $17 per share, a 50 ground constituent complaint chopped could adhd $9 per share, and each $10/kg summation successful NdPr prices could adhd astir $7 per share.

Despite cutting gross and net estimates for 2026 and 2027, Jefferies said planetary electrification trends could assistance semipermanent uncommon world demand. Investor involvement successful drone applications is besides shifting from niche speculation to a much credible structural request driver. And advancement connected a Saudi associated task expected this summertime could unlock an further $2–$5 per stock successful value.

Operationally, MP is expected to ramp NdPr oxide accumulation astir 20% quarter-over-quarter successful 1Q26, with gradual increases done the twelvemonth and a targeted run-rate of astir 6,100 tonnes by Q4 2026.

Magnet gross is expected to physique successful the 2nd fractional of 2026 arsenic deliveries statesman from the Independence facility, portion margins are expected to stay beardown arsenic accumulation scales. The institution volition besides admit $74 cardinal successful deferred magnetics gross implicit the adjacent 4 quarters.

Jefferies besides flagged mid-2026 commissioning of dense uncommon world accumulation astatine Mountain Pass, including dysprosium and terbium output, followed by samarium accumulation by 2028.