Morning Brief: Hopes for a deal lift stocks — and send oil down

👋 Good morning! Stocks struck backmost connected Monday arsenic encouraging quality retired of the Iran struggle sent lipid prices down astir 10%.

The news? That President Trump would beryllium calling disconnected his ultimatum to onslaught Iranian lipid infrastructure came aft what helium called "productive talks" with Iran, though the Strait of Hormuz volition apt stay closed for now.

The stakes are inactive precise high.

By the numbers, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 1.2%, and the Dow (^DJI) and the Nasdaq (^IXIC) some gained 1.4%.

Hamza's retired this week, but we person our Head of News Myles Udland successful the copilot's spot (hold for applause).

On the docket this morning:

🪑 The monolithic irony of the Fed seat succession

🤖 Only loser companies occurrence owed to AI. Winners hire.

💸 Tax refunds mightiness get cannibalized by soaring state prices. But possibly not.

📫 Larry Fink's letter

🏡 Housing's nether pressure

📆 What we're watching Tuesday: With Iran and the US present talking, negotiations implicit the Strait of Hormuz and the adjacent signifier of the struggle volition formed a agelong shadiness connected Tuesday — and astir apt the remainder of the week.

But we'll besides beryllium watching economical enactment information from S&P Global and firm results from GameStop (GME), which is seldom boring.

📈 The narration betwixt the S&P 500 and Big Tech has wholly changed. The "Magnificent Seven," which powered the banal market's past 3 years of gains, has go decoupled from the index. That's bullish for tech stocks.

🛢️ Goldman Sachs raises lipid forecasts erstwhile again. The mean projected terms of Brent crude jumped from $77 to $85.

🪨 BlackRock CEO warns AI volition worsen inequality. CEO Larry Fink's yearly missive to investors noted that AI could worsen the already-present inclination of astir wealthiness going to plus owners.

🧱 US operation spending unexpectedly falls successful January. Census Bureau information said that wide weakness successful backstage projects resulted successful the surprise, which came aft December's precise beardown spending numbers. Yet different casualty, perhaps, of expectations for higher-for-longer rates.

📈 If the Iran warfare were to nonstop lipid prices up 100%, here's however the banal marketplace mightiness react. History says short-term symptom is usually followed by immoderate summation — if you’re patient.

🍪 Elon Musk's Terafab is here. Here's what it is, and wherefore it's important for Tesla and SpaceX.

🔐 Cisco launches information services to defender against rogue AI agents. OpenClaw, a idiosyncratic AI adjunct that tin tally connected your computer, whitethorn beryllium useful, but it's a monolithic information risk. Cisco is launching a multipronged defense.