Morgan Stanley has a stark message for investors in Apple stocks

Morgan Stanley conscionable published survey information that makes a beardown lawsuit for owning Apple (AAPL) stock. The firm's AlphaWise Global Smartphone Survey was released March 22. It shows iPhone upgrade intentions hitting an all-time survey high.

The information enactment the bank's above-consensus iPhone forecast. Morgan Stanley keeps its overweight standing and $315 terms people unchanged. The banal closed astatine $247.99 connected March 20. That people implies astir 27% upside from that level.

The header fig is simply a blended planetary iPhone upgrade complaint of 37%, up 2 percent points twelvemonth implicit year. That is the highest speechmaking successful the survey's history. The operator is China, wherever upgrade intentions surged 9 points twelvemonth implicit twelvemonth to scope their ain all-time precocious successful the survey.

On the switching side, Apple's nett switching complaint improved to 11%. That is simply a five-year high. Apple was the lone large smartphone marque successful the survey with a affirmative and improving nett switching rate.

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Samsung, Xiaomi, Huawei, and others were each negative. That positions Apple to summation marketplace stock successful 2026 adjacent arsenic the wide smartphone marketplace faces pressure.

Together, these information points enactment Morgan Stanley's FY26 iPhone shipment forecast of astir 260 cardinal units, which sits 3% supra Street consensus.

The astir astonishing effect successful the survey whitethorn beryllium the level of involvement successful a foldable iPhone. Morgan Stanley recovered that 27% of planetary iPhone owners are "extremely interested" successful paying for one. In China, that fig rises to astir 40%.

The slope does not expect a 4th of the installed basal to unreserved retired and bargain a first-generation foldable device. But the request awesome is strong. Morgan Stanley expects Apple to much than treble the planetary foldable smartphone marketplace wrong 18 months of launch.

The basal lawsuit puts foldable iPhone gross astatine astir $40 billion. The bull lawsuit reaches $60 billion.

The foldable iPhone is expected to motorboat successful autumn 2026 alongside the iPhone 18 Pro lineup. If the survey information translates to existent purchases, the FY27 gross interaction would beryllium significant. Morgan Stanley's FY27 iPhone gross estimation is already 14% supra Street consensus. The foldable is simply a large crushed why.

Not everything successful the survey was affirmative for Apple. Consumer cognition of Apple Intelligence continued to deteriorate twelvemonth implicit year. The diagnostic ranked seventh globally arsenic a crushed to upgrade to an iPhone. In the U.S., the diminution was the astir pronounced of immoderate portion surveyed.