Is SpaceX Stock a Buy at a $2.8 Trillion Valuation? The Math Might Blow Your Mind.

1 hour ago 6

Adam Spatacco, The Motley Fool

Fri, June 19, 2026 astatine 10:21 AM CDT 6 min read

Last Friday, Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) completed the largest archetypal nationalist offering (IPO) of each time. SpaceX banal opened its archetypal trading time connected the Nasdaq astatine astir $150, implying a $2.1 trillion marketplace cap.

In the days that followed SpaceX's nationalist debut, shares person climbed 44%. As of this penning (June 16), SpaceX is present worthy $2.8 trillion, making it the fifth-most invaluable institution successful the world. That post-IPO surge has drawn predictable skepticism. Detractors constituent to the company's 2025 fiscal show -- astir $19 cardinal successful gross and a $5 cardinal nett nonaccomplishment -- arsenic impervious that the valuation the marketplace is putting connected it is detached from fundamentals.

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Indeed, accepted valuation metrics enactment this stance. However, this presumption relies purely connected a rear-view reflector snapshot that ignores immoderate caller transformative tailwinds for SpaceX. Prior to the IPO, SpaceX signed 2 large AI infrastructure agreements -- 1 with Anthropic and 1 with Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG)(NASDAQ: GOOGL).

These deals present high-visibility, high-margin gross streams for the institution that could reframe the full valuation statement astir it.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

SpaceX conscionable supercharged its gross illustration

In May, SpaceX announced that Anthropic had agreed to perpetrate $1.25 cardinal per period done May 2029 to rent unreality computing capableness from its Colossus and Colossus II grooming clusters. The full woody worth implicit the adjacent 3 years is astir $45 billion. In addition, Alphabet's Google Cloud volition wage $920 cardinal per period from October 2026 done June 2029 for unreality capacity, oregon $30 cardinal successful full revenue. Once those information halfway deals are afloat ramped up, the 2 contracts volition make a combined yearly tally complaint of astir $26 cardinal successful recurring revenue.

These are not speculative aboriginal sales. Rather, Anthropic and Google correspond contracted currency travel from 2 of the astir blase artificial quality (AI) hyperscalers successful the world. When layered onto the company's halfway gross basal featuring rocket launches and Starlink, SpaceX's guardant gross illustration shifts dramatically.

By 2027, I deliberation SpaceX's full top-line figures could comfortably transcend $45 cardinal annually, with the AI infrastructure conception representing the fastest-growing portion. Investors fixating connected the company's trailing income multiples are efficaciously valuing SpaceX connected yesterday's numbers portion ignoring locked-in commitments that dwarf the humanities show of the motorboat and net connectivity businesses.

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