I'm Calling It: UPS Is a Buy Before July 15

United Parcel Service's (NYSE: UPS) banal has fallen 50% since hitting a precocious successful aboriginal 2022. The stock, however, is up 30% from its lows successful Oct. 2025. The marketplace is starting to judge the company's turnaround program is gaining traction. If you hold excessively agelong to bargain it, you whitethorn miss retired connected the concern opportunity.

UPS isn't expecting overmuch from the 2nd 4th

Buying UPS earlier July 15 should get you successful earlier the institution reports second-quarter earnings. Those net aren't expected to beryllium large reading. But that's not the point. The cardinal present is that UPS has been telling investors that the archetypal fractional of 2026 would beryllium weak, with the 2nd fractional coming successful stronger.

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In different words, the extremity of the 2nd 4th volition beryllium the inflection point. It volition beryllium the constituent successful clip erstwhile the concern giant's fiscal results commencement to crook around. There are already important signs of progress, with a dependable summation successful gross per portion successful the U.S. concern being a cardinal motion of the company's aboriginal turnaround success.

Not a large year, but an important alteration of absorption

To beryllium fair, the afloat twelvemonth is apt to beryllium astir level with 2025, with gross and operating borderline hardly budging (though gross per portion is expected to support rising, ending up mid-single digits for the year). However, the institution believes the trends volition displacement betwixt the archetypal and 2nd half.

In the archetypal fractional of 2026, revenues are expected to fall, with margins remaining nether pressure. But successful the 2nd half, revenues are expected to commencement growing, with margins improving. The institution didn't materially change its presumption erstwhile it reported first-quarter 2026 net successful precocious April. In fact, the CEO doubled down, telling investors that the turnaround effort was inactive connected track. I judge determination volition beryllium a likewise affirmative update erstwhile the institution reports second-quarter earnings.

More assertive investors should see buying present

Risk-averse investors astir apt won't privation to bargain UPS, fixed the turnaround communicative it is moving on. However, for much assertive investors, that turnaround appears to beryllium coming to an end. The concern upturn volition come, if absorption is correct, successful the 2nd fractional of the year. The banal is already moving higher, but if you enactment earlier the institution reports second-quarter earnings, you tin inactive get successful earlier the remainder of Wall Street catches connected to the alteration successful direction.