Geopolitics loom large over Big Oil earnings as investors seek Venezuela details

By Sheila Dang

HOUSTON, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil and Chevron executives whitethorn look much questions astir their concern opportunities successful Venezuela than their existent quarterly net erstwhile they clasp calls with analysts connected Friday.

The U.S. seizure and removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro earlier this period opened a imaginable - albeit arduous - way for Big ​Oil to entree the country's monolithic crude reserves, aft President Donald Trump announced his imaginativeness for $100 cardinal of caller American concern to boost and power Venezuelan lipid output.

It was ‌a melodramatic geopolitical twist that followed renewed U.S.-China commercialized tensions and Russia-Ukraine bid talks during the 4th fourth of 2025, starring to fluctuating lipid prices. Investors person besides focused connected wide anti-government protests successful Iran and a imaginable U.S. effect ‌in caller days.

Exxon and Chevron study fourth-quarter and full-year net connected Friday, portion European lipid majors Shell, TotalEnergies and BP volition study adjacent month.

MAJORS TO FACE QUESTIONS ON VENEZUELA

Chevron volition beryllium successful the spotlight connected Venezuela due to the fact that it is the lone American lipid large presently operating successful the country, though the taxable volition apt travel up for each lipid firms, said Stephanie Link, main concern strategist astatine advisory steadfast Hightower Advisors, a large shareholder successful some Chevron and Exxon.

Venezuelan lipid accumulation accounts for 1% to 2% of Chevron's currency travel from operations, and the institution could adhd different 1% to 2% successful the adjacent ⁠few years if it grows production, estimated Jason Gabelman, managing manager ‌of vigor equity probe astatine TD Cowen.

Too galore questions stay to find the longer-term worth of Venezuela to Chevron's business, Jean Ann Salisbury, a Bank of America Global Research analyst, wrote successful a probe note.

"We proceed to spot Chevron arsenic being successful the cardinal position, with existing personnel, relationships, and outgo ‍mechanisms successful the state ... but we would necessitate acold much visibility to ascribe value," she wrote.

Analysts said it is improbable companies volition unveil important item connected imaginable Venezuela plans, fixed the semipermanent timeframe for lipid projects.

Shell and BP could look much intimately astatine Venezuela implicit clip due to the fact that their semipermanent plus portfolios are weaker than the U.S. firms, Gabelman said.

EXXON LIKELY TO FIELD QUESTIONS ON GUYANA

For Exxon, a large question is whether the institution ​will beryllium capable to entree caller parts of the Stabroek Block successful neighboring Guyana, wherever 30% of the prolific oilfield remains unexplored owed to territorial disputes betwixt Guyana and Venezuela, BofA's Salisbury ‌wrote successful a abstracted enactment connected Monday.