eBay's strong first half overshadowed by second-half growth concerns

First-quarter GMV maturation of 14% connected an integrated foreign-exchange neutral ground was driven mostly by a 24% surge successful Focus Categories, up from 16% successful the 4th quarter, with momentum crossed centrifugal parts, fashion, and electronics. International and home GMV some accelerated during the period.

For the 2nd quarter, eBay guided to GMV maturation of up to 10%, though analysts astatine Jefferies noted this reflects a deceleration arsenic one-time tailwinds similar show selling efficiencies and the Klarna integration statesman to slice and bullion income normalize from elevated levels.

Analysts are urging caution arsenic the e-commerce level faces a perchance crisp slowdown successful the 2nd fractional of the year.

In a note, Jefferies maintained its Underperform standing connected eBay portion raising its terms people to $65 from $60, citing first-half spot but flagging what it characterized arsenic constricted semipermanent maturation visibility.

The much pressing interest lies successful the 2nd half. Although eBay raised its full-year 2026 GMV outlook to 7% to 7.5% maturation connected a constant-currency basis, up from a anterior anticipation of astir 5.6%, Jefferies calculates that hitting the precocious extremity of second-quarter guidance inactive implies a slowdown to conscionable 3% GMV maturation successful the backmost fractional of the year. The steadfast attributed this to tougher year-over-year comparisons and the moderation of category-specific tailwinds, including elevated trading paper and bullion sales.

Jefferies besides flagged disappointment with eBay's borderline trajectory. The institution guided for adjusted operating income maturation of 9% to 11% for full-year 2026, implying lone 15 to 30 ground points of borderline expansion.

The steadfast estimated that first-party advertizing gross alone, which grew 28% year-over-year, could person contributed astir $100 cardinal successful incremental EBIT successful the archetypal quarter, suggesting halfway reinvestment is offsetting overmuch of the payment from top-line acceleration.

eBay has indicated it intends to redirect immoderate of that top-line upside into merchandise improvement and selling successful enactment of strategical priorities including C2C commerce, eBay Live, and vehicles.

Jefferies lowered its 2026 and 2027 EBITDA estimates by 4% and 2%, respectively, and present projects full-year 2026 EBITDA of astir $3.04 billion, down from a anterior estimation of $3.17 billion.