Copper’s Uber-Bull Predicts New Record on Most-Profitable-Ever Trade

Kostas Bintas became 1 of the best-known metals traders during his years gathering Trafigura Group’s copper publication into the world’s largest, earlier his departure successful precocious 2023. Now spearheading a propulsion into metals astatine vigor trader Mercuria Energy Group Ltd., helium is again calling for copper to surge to grounds highs, up by arsenic overmuch arsenic a 3rd from existent levels.

The immense amounts of metallic being drawn into the US volition permission the remainder of the satellite — and crucially, apical user China — perilously short, Bintas said successful an interview.

“We deliberation determination is thing exceptional happening successful the copper market,” helium said. “Is it unreasonable to expect a copper terms of $12,000 oregon $13,000? I’m struggling to enactment a fig connected it due to the fact that this has ne'er happened before.”

Bintas was 1 of the archetypal of a increasing chorus of traders and investors to foretell that copper was astir to participate a multiyear bull marketplace successful the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic, and that rising request for electrification would outpace proviso growth. At Mercuria, he’s teamed up with different prolific bull: erstwhile Goldman Sachs Group Inc. metals strategist Nick Snowdon, who astir a twelvemonth agone was forecasting mean prices of $15,000 a ton successful 2025.

Still, copper bulls person been disappointed connected respective occasions, astir precocious past twelvemonth erstwhile prices surged to a grounds precocious supra $11,000 a ton, lone to falter arsenic Chinese buyers stepped backmost from the market.

Now the dislocations caused by Trump’s menace of copper tariffs person changed the marketplace dynamic. While the US has yet to enforce wide tariffs connected copper imports, home prices person soared to implicit $1,400 a ton supra the remainder of the world, creating a immense inducement for traders to vessel each spare ton to the US.

“In presumption of the margins per ton, I’ve ne'er seen a amended trading opportunity,” Bintas said.

The displacement of inventory to the US means the Chinese copper marketplace volition beryllium near with insufficient stocks, Bintas said. Chinese buyers — who relationship for much than fractional of planetary request — volition beryllium forced to vie with the US market. At the aforesaid time, the ample volumes of scrap copper that typically travel retired of the US person efficaciously dried up.