ASML Could Soar Higher in 12 Months and Here’s Why We’d Buy It

5 days ago 8

Vandita Jadeja

Tue, June 16, 2026 astatine 8:48 AM CDT 4 min read

Quick Read

ASML earns a BUY standing and $1,997 terms target, fueled by a grounds $45 cardinal backlog and a 75% year-to-date surge.
Elon Musk named ASML the top institution successful Europe and confirmed it arsenic a cardinal supplier to the $55 cardinal Terafab project.
Export controls and a 62x trailing P/E are the superior risks, with China gross acceptable to diminution and a bear-case people of $1,581.
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ASML (NASDAQ:ASML) has been 1 of 2026's defining AI infrastructure trades, with the Dutch lithography monopolist riding a grounds bid book, a raised full-year guide, and renewed mega-cap enthusiasm to caller highs. After a 74.81% year-to-date run, the question is whether the rally inactive has room.

Our 24/7 Wall St. terms people for ASML is $1,996.77 implicit the adjacent 12 months. With shares past trading astatine $1,863.55, that implies astir 7.1% upside. The proposal is bargain astatine 90% confidence.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary

A Musk Endorsement, A Record Backlog, And A $700B Milestone

ASML has gained 13.51% successful the past week and 17.83% successful the past month, putting shares astir 11% beneath the 52-week precocious of $1,903.50. The banal precocious became the archetypal European institution to transverse $700 cardinal successful marketplace cap, helped by Elon Musk calling ASML "arguably the top institution successful Europe" and confirming it arsenic a captious supplier to the $55 cardinal SpaceX-Tesla Terafab project.

The fundamentals backmost the move. Q1 2026 delivered EPS of $8.4349 connected gross of $10.34 billion, with gross borderline astatine 53%. Management raised the full-year 2026 outlook to €36 cardinal to €40 billion, and the year-end 2025 backlog stood astatine a grounds $45.06 billion.

Why Bulls See A Breakout Past $2,200

The bull lawsuit is straightforward: AI capex is structurally tight, and ASML is the chokepoint. CEO Christophe Fouquet said "demand for chips is outpacing supply" and that customers are accelerating their capableness enlargement plans for 2026 and beyond. Q4 2025 nett bookings deed $15.28 billion, with EUV unsocial astatine $8.60 billion.

Sell-side is leaning in. BofA Securities reiterated Buy with a $2,268 target, citing a imaginable 2030 way to €73 cardinal successful income and implicit €90 successful EPS. JP Morgan upgraded out-year estimates aft concluding ASML tin vessel much than 110 low-NA EUV tools annually, good supra the anterior 90-unit ceiling. Our bull-case script points to $2,081.87 wrong 12 months.

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