ASEAN vehicle market perks up after period of decline – GlobalData

GlobalData

Mon, Apr 28, 2025, 4:06 AM 4 min read

In February 2025, ASEAN Light Vehicle (LV) income accrued by 8% year-on-year (YoY) aft the marketplace had been successful diminution since August 2023, but for a marginal summation of 0.3% YoY successful November 2024. By country, Thailand was the lone marketplace that experienced a antagonistic income show successful February, with a driblet of 14% YoY marking its 21st consecutive period of contraction. Moreover, the country’s volumes continued to autumn by 1% YoY successful March. The sluggish show was chiefly owed to precocious household debt, tightened car indebtedness approvals, and a anemic economy.

In bid to enactment the section industry, the Thai authorities accrued the car indebtedness warrant for Pickup starting successful April until December 2025. The argumentation aims to unbend car indebtedness approvals and focuses solely connected Pickups, arsenic this conception accounted for 47% of the country’s LV income successful 2022 but dropped to 29% successful 2024, with each Pickup models produced locally. However, the argumentation is not apt to person a important interaction connected demand, arsenic it does not little Pickup prices oregon the outgo of ownership. Despite Thailand's March income being stronger than our expectations, we person lowered the country’s 2025 outlook from 593k units to 578k units, owed to the constricted interaction of the government’s argumentation and the uncertain economy, peculiarly regarding goods exports.

In Indonesia, the LV marketplace slowed by 11% YoY successful January, past rebounded by 4% YoY and 18% month-on-month (MoM) successful February, acknowledgment to the 2025 Indonesia International Motor Show lawsuit held from February 13-23. However, based connected caller information, income successful March erstwhile again decreased by 3% YoY and 1% MoM. This resulted successful full Q1 2025 LV income dropping by astir 4% YoY, owed to tightened car indebtedness conditions remaining an obstacle for caller LV income and the authorities expanding VAT from 11% to 12% successful January 2025.

As such, we person lowered Indonesia’s 2025-29 income forecast by an mean of 4% compared to our erstwhile report. The downward revision is based connected the Indonesian authorities passing authorities that expands the relation of subject forces and reverses immoderate of the restrictions implemented 2 decades agone aft the Suharto dictatorship, which volition interaction user and concern confidence. As a result, the country’s 2025 income are present projected astatine 816k units. However, this projection does not bespeak the March results, owed to the timing of information, and frankincense the 2025 outlook could beryllium little than the 800k portion mark.

Malaysia’s LV volumes accrued by 1% YoY successful February, portion registration information showed an enlargement of 2% YoY successful March. This came courtesy of assertive income campaigns during the Ramadan play and the motorboat of caller models, peculiarly from Chinese brands specified arsenic the Jaecoo J7 and the BYD Sealion 7 and M6. Despite March income being stronger than our expectations, we person marginally chopped the 2025 outlook from 761k units to 759k units, arsenic the upgrades and caller models expected from nationalist brands, Proton and Perodua, person been delayed.