Analysis-Why SpaceX's mega IPO may not signal a broader rebound in listings

By Manya Saini and Lucy Raitano

May 21 (Reuters) - SpaceX's record-shattering IPO has fixed Wall Street the benignant of spectacle it has craved since the pandemic-era listings boom, but the once-in-a-generation marketplace lawsuit whitethorn connection small penetration into whether the broader IPO marketplace is genuinely back.

The IPO is expected to seizure the imaginativeness of retail investors with ‌a uncommon premix of sci-fi ambition and Silicon Valley hype, marrying promises of Mars exploration with bets connected AI infrastructure and information centers successful space.

But investors should not look ‌at it arsenic a bellwether for the broader IPO marketplace due to the fact that the institution has small successful communal with a emblematic IPO candidate, much than fractional a twelve analysts and manufacture experts told Reuters.

"SpaceX is truthful ample and extraordinarily valued that it doesn't ​lend itself arsenic a mean trial lawsuit for the IPO market," said Lukas Muehlbauer, IPOX probe associate.

"The IPO marketplace has reopened, but the appetite is inactive concentrated successful companies that lucifer beardown thematics specified arsenic industrials, AI infrastructure, defense, vigor and parts of biotech."

A SpaceX listing expected to rise much than $75 cardinal astatine a valuation of astir $1.75 trillion would dwarf each IPO connected grounds and propel full U.S. IPO proceeds to their highest level since 2021, according to a Reuters investigation of Dealogic data.

FIRMS LOOK TO AVOID COLLISION WITH SPACEX

A woody of this standard could drain liquidity and capitalist request from the market, pushing different IPO ‌hopefuls to the sidelines, manufacture experts and analysts told Reuters successful April.

IPO ⁠bankers expect investors to beryllium heavy tied up with the SpaceX IPO fixed its sheer size and the unit connected galore funds to enactment successful the landmark deal, 1 European equity superior markets banker said.

While smaller European deals whitethorn spell up mostly unaffected, larger IPOs are expected to look disruption due to the fact that of ⁠their reliance connected large U.S. investors, a 2nd banker said.

"The wider communicative has been that immoderate companies person accelerated their IPO plans to get up of SpaceX, which is momentum that could proceed arsenic issuers effort to spell nationalist earlier the listing absorbs a ample stock of capitalist attraction adjacent month," IPOX's Muehlbauer said.

Several listings person made their mode to the marketplace successful caller weeks, including AI chipmaker Cerebras and concern slope Lincoln International this ​month.

THE 'FOMO' ​TRADE

For galore retail traders, the SpaceX woody is shaping up to beryllium the eventual FOMO trade, driven arsenic overmuch ​by Elon Musk's cult-like pursuing and scarcity worth arsenic by accepted valuation metrics.