Analysis-Global investors hunker down for volatility even as tariff pause is welcomed

2 months ago 16

By Summer Zhen and Dhara Ranasinghe

LONDON (Reuters) - As the particulate settles aft a bruising week eased by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff pause, the takeaway from planetary investors is large and clear: marketplace turbulence is present to stay.

In a stunning reversal connected Wednesday, Trump said helium would temporarily little the hefty duties recently imposed connected dozens of countries portion further ramping up unit connected China.

A monolithic alleviation rally sent the S&P 500 banal scale up astir 10% successful its biggest one-day leap since October 2008, portion connected Thursday Japanese stocks surged 9% and European shares were acceptable for their champion time since 2020.

Investors and analysts said de-risking from U.S. markets would apt proceed with investors reducing vulnerability to Wall Street shares and expanding vulnerability to harmless havens.

"The volatility is not over, the situation remains uncertain and immoderate of the impacts are irreversible," said Sat Duhra, a portfolio manager astatine Janus Henderson Investors successful Singapore. "We person to get utilized to much backmost and distant connected this contented and trying to commercialized it connected specified a abbreviated word ground is 1 for traders not for investors."

UBS Global Wealth Management CIO Mark Haefele said the marketplace rebound was an accidental to presumption for a apt volatile period, particularly fixed an escalation successful commercialized tensions betwixt the United States and China - the world's 2 biggest economies.

And portion Trump's tariff intermission has eased recession fears, banks said they inactive expected a crisp slowdown successful economical maturation with user and concern sentiment apt to beryllium deed by the uncertainty astir commercialized levies.

"It seems precise wide that the creaseless semipermanent up-track for U.S. stocks is broken, and we are successful a caller epoch of heightened volatility and uncertainty," said Guy Miller, main markets strategist astatine Zurich Insurance Group, adding that helium remained cautious.

Leading measures of banal and enslaved marketplace volatility stay good supra levels seen earlier Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement past week.

And the safe-haven Swiss franc is up much than 5% against the dollar truthful acold successful April - acceptable for its champion period since precocious 2022.

"The level of daze was extreme, truthful we’ve seen much (client) wealth flowing to safer strategies, similar wealth marketplace funds, high-quality fixed income and backstage credit, implicit the past fewer weeks that are much uncorrelated to markets," Samuel Rhee, president of Singapore-based wealthiness advisor Endowus, told a media briefing.

SHAKEN

Analysts and investors crossed the globe person pointed to this week's crisp sell-off successful U.S. Treasuries and weakness successful the dollar arsenic grounds that assurance successful the world's biggest system has been shaken.

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