Americans Traded Up to $34 Billion on Offshore Prediction Markets: Study

Americans were liable for up to $34 cardinal successful offshore prediction marketplace trading volumes during the 12-month play ending successful April 2026, according to a caller survey commissioned by the Coalition for Prediction Markets, an manufacture radical that includes regulated prediction marketplace operators similar Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Coinbase.

The study, which was conducted by Rutgers prof and CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee subordinate Harry Crane, compared information from offshore platforms—or those that bash not let U.S. users and are not regulated by the CFTC—with platforms that person exclusively U.S. users, oregon exclusively non-U.S. users.

"As a stock of each U.S. prediction marketplace enactment (including regulated and offshore platforms), we estimation 12.5–31.5% of U.S. prediction marketplace measurement occurs connected offshore platforms," the survey says.

"Based connected existent third-party estimates of manufacture growth, U.S.-based enactment connected offshore prediction markets could turn to an estimated $133 cardinal successful yearly measurement by 2030, assuming changeless comparative marketplace shares of regulated and offshore markets," it added.

The findings highlighted Polymarket, the largest offshore platform, estimating that astir $10.6-$26.7 cardinal of its $55.6 cardinal trailing 12 months trading measurement was attributable to U.S. users, adjacent though they are technically disallowed connected the platform.

The firm, which was pushed offshore by the CFTC successful 2022, said it was fixed the "green light" to spell unrecorded successful the U.S. past fall. Since that time, it's dilatory rolled retired its regulated Polymarket U.S. platform, but volumes were not separated by the study, owed to unreliable data.

Data from a Dune dashboard notes that the regulated U.S. mentation of Polymarket has posted astir $5 cardinal successful notional volumes to date.

A typical for Polymarket did not instantly respond to Decrypt's request for comment.

New CFTC Rules connected Prediction Markets Would Ban Wagers connected Ouster of US Enemies

Though Polymarket was the largest offshore marketplace evaluated, the survey besides investigated information from different unregulated markets similar Opinion, Predict, Limitless, and Myriad. (Disclaimer: Myriad is simply a merchandise of Decrypt's parent company, Dastan).

According to the Coalition, which is made up of regulated prediction marketplace operators, this represents a important problem, arsenic offshore markets aren't held to the aforesaid standards arsenic those nether U.S. regulations.

"Americans are utilizing VPNs to entree unregulated, offshore prediction marketplace platforms that connection contracts connected decease and war," it posted connected X. "Now, we yet cognize however large this marketplace is."