'Almost Guaranteed': A Wall Street Legend Says Silver Will Drop 50%

Silver didn't conscionable rally—it went parabolic. Now Marko Kolanovic is calling the comedown. The erstwhile JPMorgan main strategist said metallic is "almost guaranteed to driblet ~50% from these levels wrong a twelvemonth oregon so."

That doesn’t dependable similar a cautious forecast. It sounds similar a near-certainty. In a marketplace wherever metallic ETFs similar iShares Silver ETF (NYSE:SLV), abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF (NYSE:SIVR) and Sprott Physical Silver ETF (NYSE:PSLV) person go momentum trades for macro tourists, that's a contrarian grenade.

Kolanovic's logic is blunt: speculative manias seldom extremity gently. Commodities stroke off, positioning unwinds, and prices mean-revert hard.

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Silver's surge—driven by retail momentum, choky supply, and macro fear—checks each the boxes.

Contrarian trader Kevin Muir precocious said metallic whitethorn person already peaked, pointing to exhaustion signs arsenic golden kept rallying portion metallic stalled.

Silver is not gold. It's golden with beta—and beta cuts some ways.

In the 1970s, golden surged from astir $40 to $200, sucked successful euphoric buyers, past crashed backmost adjacent $100. Many apical buyers capitulated—only to miss the historical rally to $800 aboriginal successful the decade.

Mean reversion shook retired anemic hands. The secular inclination wasn't over.

Who knows, metallic whitethorn beryllium mounting up the aforesaid intelligence trap.

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Silver bulls, however, reason that this clip is different. Structural deficits, star demand, AI hardware, and electrification are soaking up supply. By that logic, SLV and PSLV aren't conscionable trades—they're semipermanent energy-transition proxies.

Silver, successful this view, isn't a bubble. It could beryllium the concern metallic of the decade.

Silver present sits betwixt 2 regimes: macro fearfulness hedge and concern scarcity asset. Bears spot a mania chart. Bulls spot a secular shortage.

Kolanovic's informing is that metallic behaves little similar a store of worth and much similar a leveraged macro instrument. When positioning unwinds, it unwinds violently.

A 50% driblet wouldn't beryllium unprecedented. It would beryllium historically normal.

The bigger question: would that beryllium the end—or the 1970s-style shakeout earlier the adjacent limb higher?

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