AI Bubble Fears Grow as Big Tech Allegedly Pays Itself in Cloud Loop

Lockridge Okoth

Mon, May 25, 2026 astatine 8:15 AM CDT 5 min read

Big Tech's $2 trillion AI golden unreserved is hiding a structural flaw. Critics accidental the giants are softly paying themselves done their ain unreality bills, igniting caller AI bubble fears that progressively echo the dot-com era.

Latest firm filings amusement OpenAI and Anthropic unsocial anchor implicit fractional of the astir $2 trillion successful aboriginal unreality commitments held by Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Oracle. This leaves 4 trillion-dollar companies leaning connected 2 unprofitable startups.

The Cloud Loop That Pays Itself

Critics telephone the mechanics a round-trip backing loop. A tech elephantine writes a billion-dollar cheque to an AI startup. The declaration past forces that aforesaid wealth consecutive back, successful the signifier of unreality rent. The currency ne'er leaves the building.

Microsoft's $13 cardinal involvement successful OpenAI is the textbook case. The concern landed mostly arsenic Azure unreality credits. OpenAI fed those credits into grooming models, and Microsoft turned astir and booked the depletion arsenic caller commercialized revenue.

OpenAI's yearly unreality measure has reportedly ballooned past $60 billion. The company's existent gross sits person to $25 billion.

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Anthropic plays the aforesaid manus with Amazon. The Claude developer spent $2.66 cardinal connected Amazon Web Services successful 9 months, astir each dollar it earned.

"The full AI roar mightiness beryllium built connected fake revenue," remarked expert Bull Theory.

The signifier echoes 2001, erstwhile Global Crossing and Qwest Communications swapped fiber-optic capableness to fabricate sales.

Qwest yet erased $1.4 cardinal successful fictitious income, and Global Crossing went bankrupt. The 2026 mentation stays afloat ineligible nether existent accounting rules.

Paper Profits Are Doing the Heavy Lifting

The 2nd limb of the loop sits connected the income statement. Every caller backing circular for an AI startup lets its Big Tech backer people up the concern and driblet the insubstantial summation consecutive into nett income.

Alphabet posted a grounds $62.6 cardinal nett successful Q1 2026. About $28.7 cardinal of that fig came from a markup connected its Anthropic stake, according to its filing.

Amazon mirrored the trick. Roughly $16.8 cardinal of its $30.3 cardinal successful nett income tracked backmost to the aforesaid Anthropic gross story, according to Fortune's analysis.