A Researcher Who Left the AI Labs Predicted Google’s Stock Would “Explode”

Back successful June 2024, researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner near OpenAI's superalignment squad and predicted that Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) banal would "explode." Two years later, that telephone has aged remarkably well. The banal has done precisely what helium said it would, and the underlying concern matches the representation helium sketched."I attraction astir it erstwhile you get the AI beta. Right. And truthful astatine immoderate constituent Google volition get $100 cardinal of gross from A.I. astir apt their banal volition explode."

The Stock Did Explode

When Aschenbrenner recorded that episode, Alphabet was trading astatine $173.81. As of Friday's close, shares beryllium astatine $359.68, a 107% summation from the time his occurrence aired. The one-year instrumentality unsocial is 105%. I person owned Alphabet since April 2012, and the past 24 months person been the astir validating agelong I tin retrieve for the AI thesis.

Aschenbrenner's framing was straightforward: the marketplace would attraction astir Google's AI enactment the infinitesimal it showed up successful the gross line. That infinitesimal has arrived.

Cloud Is Where the $100 Billion Thesis Lives

Google does not interruption retired an "AI revenue" line, but Google Cloud is the closest proxy. In Q1 FY2026, reported April 29, 2026, Cloud gross deed $20.03 billion, up 63% twelvemonth implicit year, with backlog astir doubling 4th connected 4th to implicit $460 billion. That backlog fig is contracted aboriginal revenue, overmuch of it tied to AI infrastructure and Gemini workloads.

The Cloud maturation curve is bending the close way: 32% successful Q2 2025, 34% successful Q3, 48% successful Q4, 63% successful Q1 2026. CEO Sundar Pichai said connected the past call: "Our AI investments and afloat stack attack are lighting up each portion of the business." You tin work the afloat merchandise successful the company's Q1 2026 8-K filing with the SEC.

Gemini Is Scaling Like a Real Product

The user and developer broadside matters too. The Gemini App crossed 750 cardinal monthly progressive users by Q4 2025. API usage deed 16 cardinal tokens per minute, up 60% from the anterior quarter. Gemini Enterprise paid monthly progressive users grew 40% 4th implicit quarter. Search revenue, which galore feared would get gutted by chatbots, accelerated to 19% maturation arsenic AI Overviews and AI Mode rolled retired globally.