Why Bitcoin Treasuries Are Trading at a Discount

Aly Madhavji

Tue, December 9, 2025 astatine 11:00 AM CST 11 min read

• Net superior inflows into Bitcoin totaled $661B since January 2024, with US spot ETFs acquiring astir 5.2% of that flow, portion FASB just worth accounting (effective 2025) eliminated impairment-only attraction that distorted firm Bitcoin holdings connected equilibrium sheets.
  

• Strategy owns 650K BTC (3% of full supply) arsenic of December 2025, built done convertible indebtedness with 0%-2.25% coupons and equity issuance astatine premiums to NAV.
  

• KindlyMD merged with Nakamoto Holdings successful August 2025, raised $763M, purchased 5.7K BTC, past crashed 54% successful September erstwhile execution failures destroyed capitalist confidence.
  

• Most treasury companies present commercialized beneath NAV (Strategy mNAV: 0.856), compressed by Fed rates astatine 3.75%-4%, nonstop ETF competition, and governance concerns.

• December 2025 Fed complaint chopped (80% odds) and M&A consolidation whitethorn stabilize discounts, but buybacks hazard converting treasuries from nett buyers to nett sellers.

Corporate treasurers person spent a period optimizing the aforesaid trade-off: information against yield. Cash earns thing but stays liquid. Bonds wage coupons but fastener duration. Equities committedness maturation but invitation volatility. The effect has been a predictable allocation signifier crossed industries. Working superior sits successful wealth markets. Strategic reserves rotate betwixt short-term Treasuries and investment-grade credit. Boards o.k. these choices without statement due to the fact that the alternatives person ever looked worse.

That statement is fracturing. A caller people of nationalist companies has emerged with a antithetic mandate: rise equity oregon indebtedness successful accepted superior markets, past deploy the proceeds into Bitcoin oregon different integer assets. The operation looks straightforward connected paper. The marketplace effect has been thing but. Bitcoin treasury companies present clasp billions successful corporate marketplace capitalization. Their shareholders are not buying operating businesses successful the accepted sense. They are buying levered vulnerability to an plus people that astir organization portfolios inactive exclude.

For eighteen months, the exemplary worked. Share prices traded astatine premiums to the Bitcoin these companies held. That premium justified further equity raises, which funded much Bitcoin purchases, which lifted valuations again. The flywheel spun faster arsenic spot Bitcoin ETFs launched and accounting rules shifted. Then the discount arrived. By precocious 2025, galore of these vehicles commercialized beneath the worth of the assets connected their equilibrium sheets. The reflexive bid has reversed into reflexive pressure. The question is whether this is simply a impermanent dislocation oregon a structural reprice.