Why 2026 should terrify Republicans after Tennessee special election

As the aged saying goes, "Close lone counts successful horseshoes and manus grenades," and the GOP is surely breathing a suspiration of alleviation coming retired of Tuesday night’s peculiar predetermination for Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. 

Republican Matt Van Epps defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn by 9 points successful a contention that received a large woody of nationalist attraction successful caller weeks.

Why 2026 should terrify Republicans aft Tennessee election

That relief, however, volition beryllium short-lived upon further investigation due to the fact that President Trump carried Tennessee's 7th by much than 20 points conscionable a twelvemonth ago, and the territory hasn’t elected a Democrat to Congress successful much than 4 decades.  

THE TENNESSEE 'WALTZ': REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS DANCE AROUND SPECIAL ELECTION RESULTS MEANING

Despite millions successful extracurricular GOP spending, nonstop on-the-ground engagement from Speaker Johnson and President Trump, past night’s results correspond a 13-point displacement toward the Democrats compared to 2024.

Republican Rep. Matt Van Epps of Tennessee, left, shakes hands with Speaker Mike Johnson aft being sworn successful to the U.S. House connected Capitol Hill successful Washington, D.C., Dec. 4, 2025 (AP)

For Republicans who spent the past period downplaying Democratic overperformance statewide successful Virginia and New Jersey and successful cardinal elections successful traditionally friendlier territories successful Georgia, Texas and Mississippi, past nighttime should beryllium a wake-up telephone for Team Red.

Here are 5 cardinal takeaways from the results and what they mean for adjacent year’s conflict for Congress travel November.

TRUMP-BACKED VAN EPPS SWORN IN AS GOP HITS 220 SEATS — BUT INCOMING GREENE EXIT THREATENS RAZOR-THIN MAJORITY

Democrats mislaid the race, but they proceed to triumph the argument

Earlier this week, appearing connected "Fox & Friends," Tennessee Republican Rep. Tim Burchett declared that this "special predetermination shouldn’t beryllium this close, but it is." Burchett is right. This is simply a ruby reddish Republican territory that past sent a Democrat to Congress during the Reagan administration. Republicans poured much than $3 cardinal into this contention and deployed each tried-and-true onslaught enactment from calling Behn "an anti-Tennessee extremist progressive" to "defund the police," and Van Epps hardly scraped by.

Democrats person been consistently performing amended successful cardinal off-year elections passim 2025. With Behn’s 13-point betterment implicit 2024 results, Team Blue has overperformed successful 220 retired of 248 races — astir 90% — compared with conscionable 1 twelvemonth ago.

SURVEY SAYS: ISSUE THAT HELPED TRUMP AND REPUBLICANS IN 2024 HURT THEM NOW

The GOP status situation conscionable got a batch worse

It’s important to retrieve wherefore past night’s peculiar predetermination was held successful the archetypal place. Rep. Mark Green, who had served successful this spot since 2019 and chaired the House Homeland Security Committee, abruptly announced past June helium was leaving Congress to prosecute a backstage assemblage occupation astir surely with amended pay, little question and easier hours.

TRUMP-BACKED REPUBLICAN TOUTS 'GREAT TURNOUT FOR US' IN MUST-WIN SPECIAL ELECTION FOR GOP

Already this year, 44 lawmakers — much than 1 successful 10 — person announced they are not seeking predetermination or, successful Green’s case, person already retired, with the bulk of them being members of the House GOP caucus. Given Tuesday night’s results and the uncertainty of mid-cycle redistricting, that status inclination is apt to increase, giving Democrats the vantage of competing successful much unfastened spot races.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., swears successful Rep. Matt Van Epps, R-Tenn., with his woman Meg Wrather and their girl Amelia Van Epps, connected his daughter’s pinkish Bible astatine the U.S. Capitol successful Washington, D.C., Dec. 4, 2025 (Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)

It's the "affordability" argument, stupid

In 2024, President Trump won the economical statement implicit Vice President Harris with galore voters believing helium would tackle ostentation connected time one. The electorate had grown bushed of "Bidenomics" and rosier pictures of an system wherever existent Americans were struggling with rising costs, affordable healthcare and housing.

We are astir a twelvemonth into the Trump administration, and the economical paradigm has shifted with the president’s lasting connected economical issues underwater. In our ain Fox News polling from past month, 76% of voters rated the system arsenic "not truthful good" oregon "poor" with conscionable 38% approving of the president’s handling of the economy.

TOP 5 GAME-CHANGERS FROM THE 2025 CAMPAIGN TRAIL

In Tennessee, Behn talked perpetually astir affordability, ostentation and tariffs, taking a play retired of the palmy messaging playbook employed by the Spanberger and Sherrill campaigns focused connected room array economics. Voters privation tangible solutions to real-world economical hardships, and Democrats person learned however to conscionable the infinitesimal portion President Trump doubled down successful Tuesday’s Cabinet gathering that "the connection ‘affordability’ is simply a Democrat scam."

Aftyn Behn delivers a concession code during an predetermination nighttime ticker enactment astatine Marathon Music Works Dec. 2, 2025, successful Nashville, Tenn.  (Jon Cherry/Getty Images)

The 2026 House battlefield conscionable expanded for Democrats – dramatically

Tuesday night’s results physique connected the communicative that Democrats are overperforming successful races, not by azygous digits, but by double-digits, adjacent successful Trump plus-20 territory. While immoderate pundits volition disregard the results due to the fact that of the quality of peculiar elections, it’s worthy noting that elector turnout was astir identical to the past midterm predetermination for this territory successful 2022.

DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST SAYS TENNESSEE NOMINEE WAS ‘FRINGE OF A FRINGE,’ DOOMED PARTY'S CHANCES

Just arsenic 2018 expanded the representation acknowledgment to mean midterm trends and anti-MAGA energy, 2026 whitethorn beryllium shaping up to bash the same. There are astir 50 GOP House members serving successful districts that the president won by 14 points oregon less, astir comparable to Tuesday’s ballot total.

For years, Democrats mostly surrendered agrarian and profoundly reddish areas, focusing astir exclusively connected municipality and suburban districts. But 2025 has indicated a antithetic strategy: Organize and vie everyplace arsenic Democrats are "all state and nary brakes heading into adjacent year," according to DNC Chairman Ken Martin.

The midterms are shaping up to beryllium a referendum, and the GOP isn’t ready

The GOP’s electoral problems are compounding. The president’s standing, generic legislature polling and shrinking margins successful profoundly reddish turf each should beryllium a wake-up telephone to Republican members and strategists.

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Recent infighting among leadership, arsenic evidenced by this week’s spat betwixt Speaker Johnson and Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., a subordinate of his ain enactment team, further drags down GOP prospects. Without a wide connection connected the economy, voters volition proceed to spot dysfunction from a Washington wholly controlled by Republicans and blasted the bulk party.

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Democrats don’t request to triumph places similar Tennessee's 7th Congressional District successful 2026 to instrumentality backmost the majority. They conscionable request to get close. On Tuesday, they did acold much than that.   

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