Where Will Rivian Automotive Stock Be in 1 Year?

Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) was 1 of the hottest IPOs of 2021. The electrical conveyance shaper went nationalist astatine $78 connected Nov. 10 and closed astatine its grounds precocious of $172.01 six days later. It initially impressed the bulls due to the fact that it had already started mass-producing its archetypal vehicles, and it was backed by Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Ford (NYSE: F). The buying frenzy successful hypergrowth and meme stocks successful precocious 2021 further inflated its valuations and amplified its gains.

At its peak, Rivian's marketplace capitalization reached $153.3 cardinal -- oregon 92 times the gross it yet generated successful 2022. However, today, Rivian's banal trades astatine astir $17 with a marketplace headdress of $21.5 cardinal -- which is conscionable 3 times the gross it's expected to make successful 2026. That makes it ungraded inexpensive compared to Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), which trades astatine 14 times adjacent year's sales. So could this unloved EV banal bounce backmost and caput higher implicit the adjacent 12 months?

Rivian sells 3 types of EVs: the R1T pickup truck, the R1S SUV, and customized electrical transportation vans (EDVs) for Amazon and different companies. When it went public, it planned to nutrient 50,000 vehicles successful 2022 and co-develop different electrical pickup with Ford.

However, Rivian lone produced 24,337 vehicles successful 2022 arsenic it struggled with proviso concatenation constraints, mill shutdowns, and aggravated contention from different EV makers. Ford besides abandoned its concern with Rivian and sold astir of its 12% involvement successful 2022. Amazon, which placed a semipermanent bid for Rivian's EDVs done 2030, kept its 17% stake.

In 2023, Rivian much than doubled its yearly accumulation to 57,232 vehicles. It resolved astir of its proviso concatenation issues, strengthened its relationships with its suppliers, made its factories much efficient, and reduced its accumulation costs with its in-house Enduro thrust unit. But its accumulation and deliveries stalled retired again successful 2024 and 2025.

Data source: Rivian.

Rivian attributed that slowdown to inflation, rising involvement rates, reduced EV subsidies, and competitory headwinds. It besides temporarily unopen down its cardinal works successful Illinois respective times to upgrade its facilities and hole for the planned motorboat of its cheaper R2 SUV successful 2026.