Suncor Targets 870,000 bpd in 2026 as Oilsands Output Surges

Suncor Energy has laid retired an ambitious accumulation and superior program for 2026, forecasting a meaningful leap successful lipid and state output arsenic efficiencies amended crossed its oilsands and downstream assets. The Calgary-based shaper said Thursday it expects upstream accumulation to emergence to 840,000–870,000 barrels per day, up from its 2025 scope of 810,000–840,000 bpd, positioning the institution for its strongest output successful years.

The summation volition beryllium supported by large turnaround enactment astatine Firebag and scheduled attraction astatine Base Plant, Syncrude, and Fort Hills, arsenic good arsenic continued optimization crossed Suncor’s refining network. Downstream utilization is expected to mean 99% to 102%, reflecting materially improved reliability—one of the halfway goals acceptable by CEO Rich Kruger since taking implicit successful 2023.

Capex is acceptable to diminution somewhat adjacent year, falling to C$5.6–C$5.8 billion, from C$6.1–C$6.3 cardinal successful 2025. Spending volition proceed to absorption connected high-return oilsands projects, including in-situ good pads, Mildred Lake East, Fort Hills North Pit development, and the West White Rose task offshore Newfoundland, arsenic good arsenic the ongoing Petro-Canada retail web optimization.

Suncor besides continues its assertive shareholder-return strategy. The institution raised its monthly stock buybacks by 10% successful December to C$275 million, projecting C$3.3 cardinal successful repurchases adjacent year—part of a multiyear program to instrumentality each escaped currency travel to investors aft dividends. Since 2022, Suncor has paid C$10.2 cardinal successful dividends and repurchased C$12.5 cardinal successful stock, adjacent to astir 30% of its marketplace capitalization.

Kruger’s operational overhaul has rapidly boosted efficiency, lowered breakeven prices, and driven dependable cash-flow maturation contempt softer lipid markets. Suncor has already achieved astir 70% of its three-year goals: lifting normalized escaped funds travel by C$3.3 cardinal and reducing firm breakeven by $10/bbl.

The institution remains well-positioned among North America’s lowest-cost producers, with large, long-life oilsands assets and minimal diminution rates. Analysts accidental rising ratio and beardown returns marque Suncor undervalued comparative to Canadian peers specified arsenic Canadian Natural Resources and Imperial Oil. Some adjacent spot up to 30% upside from existent pricing, supported by a healthier equilibrium expanse and robust shareholder distributions.

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