Prediction: This AI Stock Will Be the Most Surprising Winner of 2026

• Oracle banal has been struggling arsenic investors interest astir the increasing indebtedness to money its AI buildout.

• However, an acceleration successful Oracle's maturation successful the adjacent fiscal twelvemonth could alleviate those concerns.

• 10 stocks we similar amended than Oracle ›

The sentiment astir Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) banal has not been favorable lately. After a stunning surge successful the archetypal 9 months of the year, shares of the unreality computing and database services supplier person witnessed a steep sell-off acknowledgment to mounting concerns astir the company's dense spending connected gathering artificial quality (AI) infrastructure, which is inflating its debt.

Oracle banal has shed 42% of its worth since hitting a 52-week precocious connected Sept. 10. Shares of the institution saw different steep pullback aft the merchandise of its fiscal 2026 second-quarter results (for the 3 months ended Nov. 30) connected Dec. 10. Let's spot wherefore investors person mislaid assurance successful Oracle stock.

Oracle's fiscal Q2 gross accrued by conscionable 14% twelvemonth implicit twelvemonth to $16.1 billion, missing the statement estimation of $16.2 billion. Its non-GAAP net changeable up by 54% twelvemonth implicit twelvemonth to $2.26 per share, driven by a $2.7 cardinal pre-tax summation from the merchantability of its involvement successful spot decorator Ampere earlier this year. Additionally, Oracle stuck to its $67 cardinal gross forecast for the existent fiscal year, which whitethorn person raised questions astir the company's quality to person its monolithic backlog into revenue.

Meanwhile, Oracle's dense borrowing to money its accelerated capex enlargement is different origin for concern. The company's escaped currency travel was a antagonistic $10 cardinal past quarter. It has been burning currency for 3 quarters connected the trot. Oracle's capex jumped by 3 times twelvemonth implicit twelvemonth successful the erstwhile 4th to $12 billion. It anticipates shelling retired $50 cardinal successful superior expenses this year, which is importantly higher than the $35 cardinal Wall Street estimate.

Oracle is borrowing heavy to money its spending. Its indebtedness ballooned to $124 cardinal (including operating lease liabilities) by the extremity of the erstwhile quarter, an summation of 39% from the year-ago period. Of course, the institution has a tremendous gross backlog to fulfill, driven chiefly by its $300 cardinal declaration with OpenAI that volition footwear disconnected successful 2027 and volition tally for 5 years. Still, it is casual to spot wherefore investors aren't convinced astir Oracle spending truthful overmuch to conscionable its backlog.

After all, OpenAI has been burning done cash. HSBC expects the AI specializer to stay escaped currency travel antagonistic implicit the adjacent 5 years, pointing retired that it would request to rise $207 cardinal done debt, equity offerings, oregon by rapidly expanding its revenue. The bully portion is that OpenAI's apical enactment is expected to turn from an estimated $35 cardinal successful 2026 to $213 cardinal successful 2030, according to HSBC. That's not surprising, arsenic the institution has a monolithic basal of 800 cardinal play users for its fashionable chatbot ChatGPT that it tin monetize.