Prediction: Elon Musk Will Reveal Tesla Is Already Losing Money in Q4

• If Tesla's Q4 EV income travel manufacture trends, its automotive gross volition driblet by much than fractional successful Q4.

• The company's cheaper Standard versions volition trim gross and whitethorn shrink its margins.

• Its expenses are rising, which would effect successful a nett nonaccomplishment successful Q4 adjacent nether optimistic scenarios.

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It sounds wild, of course: Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), the trillion-plus-dollar car company, unprofitable?!

But numbers don't lie, and the numbers amusement that a nett nonaccomplishment successful Q4 is simply a precise existent possibility. Here's wherefore I deliberation Tesla CEO Elon Musk is going to beryllium forced to admit to the satellite that Tesla is already losing money.

In some Q1 and Q2 of 2025, Tesla's quarterly gross from its automotive part declined twelvemonth implicit year. It's besides the archetypal clip Tesla has posted 2 consecutive quarters of gross declines since 2012. True, Tesla besides reported grounds Q3 automotive gross of $21.2 billion, but that quarter's income were artificially boosted by the Sept. 30 expiration of the $7,500 U.S. national electrical conveyance taxation credit, which provided a beardown inducement to bargain a Tesla successful Q3.

Other automakers that experienced akin Q3 surges successful electrical conveyance (EV) income person present released their monthly EV income figures from November. As expected, they're terrible: Ford Motor Company's November EV income fell by 60.8% twelvemonth implicit year, Hyundai's were down 58.8%, Kia's dropped 62%, and Honda's plunged a jaw-dropping 88.6%.

Even if Tesla's conveyance income someway outperform this industrywide inclination and autumn by "only" 50% twelvemonth implicit twelvemonth successful Q4 2025, from 495,570 to 247,785, its Q4 2025 automotive gross would autumn to astir $9.9 billion. The company's different concern units -- vigor generation/storage and services -- mightiness prime up immoderate of the slack if they proceed increasing gross astatine their beardown Q3 year-over-year rates of 44% and 25% (respectively). But that inactive lone translates to full Q4 gross for Tesla of astir $17.9 billion, a 10% decline.

To partially marque up for the expired $7,500 EV taxation credit, Tesla has introduced cheaper "Standard" versions of its Model 3 sedan and Model Y crossover SUV. These stripped-down models outgo astir $5,000 little than their counterparts, but deficiency immoderate cardinal features, including Autopilot and Full Self-Driving.

If each of the Model 3s and Ys that Tesla sells moving guardant were the caller Standard versions, the $5,000 terms quality unsocial would shave much than $1 cardinal disconnected the company's gross adjacent quarter. Let's beryllium generous, though, and estimation that lone fractional of them volition beryllium the Standard versions. Let's besides accidental that too the little selling price, they'll person nary further interaction connected the company's wide automotive margins. Under this scenario, Tesla's Q4 gross inactive drops different $600 cardinal and totals $17.3 billion.