Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR): A Bull Case Theory

We came crossed a bullish thesis connected Intuitive Machines, Inc. connected Value investing subreddit by andthentherewastwo. In this article, we volition summarize the bulls’ thesis connected LUNR. Intuitive Machines, Inc.'s stock was trading astatine $9.50 arsenic of November 28th. LUNR shares underperformed the marketplace by much than 30 percent points implicit the past 12 months.

Intuitive Machines, Inc. designs, manufactures, and operates abstraction products and services successful the United States. LUNR is positioned arsenic a high-potential, binary abstraction play, known for its melodramatic pre-launch banal run-ups. Currently trading astir $12, the banal is heavy discounted contempt a beardown currency presumption of astir $345 cardinal against a $2 cardinal marketplace cap, making its endeavor worth peculiarly charismatic for a U.S. abstraction premier contractor.

LUNR’s banal follows a highly predictable cycle: announcement of a motorboat day triggers a crisp rally, followed by a mission, post-mission crash, and eventual recovery—placing the banal astatine a debased constituent heading into the adjacent announcement phase.

Two near-term catalysts are acceptable to thrust the adjacent large terms question wrong the adjacent six months. The archetypal is the Q3 2025 net telephone connected November 13th, which is expected to corroborate the motorboat model for the IM-3 mission, presently targeted for H1 2026, historically a awesome that ignites important banal appreciation. The 2nd catalyst is the imaginable NASA Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) declaration award, expected earlier year-end 2025, which could adhd a multi-billion-dollar backlog and substantially de-risk LUNR’s semipermanent gross outlook.

The upcoming IM-3 ngo targets Reiner Gamma, a technically easier lunar swirl landing site, with improved safeguards specified arsenic redundant altimeters addressing erstwhile IM-2 ngo issues. Success connected this ngo could validate LUNR’s halfway concern exemplary and perchance assistance the banal to a sustained higher valuation. Given the predictable pre-launch hype cycle, beardown currency buffer, and the imaginable for a transformative NASA contract, LUNR presents a compelling risk/reward setup, offering investors a strategical introduction constituent up of aggregate binary catalysts that could thrust some short-term and semipermanent upside.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis connected Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) by Steve Wagner successful May 2025, which highlighted the company’s beardown operational momentum, increasing backlog, and enactment successful tiny orbital launches. The company's banal terms has appreciated astir by 105.46% since our sum arsenic the thesis played out. The thesis inactive stands, portion Andthentherewastwo shares a akin position but emphasizes LUNR’s pre-launch hype rhythm and near-term catalysts similar the IM-3 ngo and imaginable NASA LTV contract.