Can RIVN Stock Beat the Market in 2026?

• Rivian banal has underperformed the S&P 500 by astir 130 percent points since its IPO.

• Rivian has besides outperformed the S&P by a origin of 2 this year.

• 10 stocks we similar amended than Rivian Automotive ›

Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) banal is connected a rotation -- though the rotation is benignant of rocky.

Shares of the electrical motortruck shaper person been trading publically for much than 4 years now. Since their precocious 2021 archetypal nationalist offering (IPO), however, they've mostly been trading down. As a result, Rivian banal has mislaid 81% of its valuation astatine IPO -- versus a 47% summation for the S&P 500.

And yet, Rivian banal seems to person caught its 2nd upwind lately.

2025 was an unusual twelvemonth for this to happen, what with Rivian being an electrical conveyance company, and Congress having conscionable repealed the $7,500 electrical conveyance (EV) taxation recognition this year. Regardless, successful 2025, Rivian shares person outperformed the S&P 500 by a origin of 2, producing returns exceeding 32% for shareholders, compared to 14.2% for the S&P.

Admittedly, the standard of the supra illustration makes it hard to notice. Zoom successful connected the show implicit the past 12 months, though, and it's overmuch clearer however Rivian has outperformed the S&P 500 this year:

How did Rivian bash this, and what are the chances the electrical motortruck institution tin support its momentum successful the lack of taxation credits -- and successful the beingness of contention from Tesla and Cybertruck?

That's hard to say. In the company's third-quarter net study past month, Rivian reported awesome income maturation of 78% twelvemonth implicit twelvemonth and affirmative gross profits connected its sales. Rivian produced lone 10,720 trucks successful the quarter, but sold 13,201 -- meaning the institution successfully sold down inventory that had been cluttering up its parking lot.

Rivian inactive ended up losing $1.2 cardinal for the quarter, however, and burning done $421 cardinal successful antagonistic escaped currency flow. And this was successful the past ever 4th to see national taxation incentives encouraging sales, which drove a batch of concern Rivian's way.

Rivian whitethorn not beryllium truthful fortunate successful Q4 and consequent quarters. Management has precocious hopes arsenic it prepares to statesman selling its caller R2 electrical SUV successful aboriginal 2026, noting that its caller overgarment store volition person a "total yearly capableness to [paint] 215,000 units" -- versus the astir 42,500 Rivians the institution hopes to merchantability this year.

But portion Rivian whitethorn beryllium capable to proceed scaling its concern adjacent without authorities support, this isn't guaranteed. The information that Ford Motor Company just removed itself from the electrical motortruck marketplace comes arsenic an unexpected spot of bully luck that could assistance Rivian win -- unless it's a motion from supra that the electrical motortruck marketplace isn't a bully spot to beryllium close now!