A year on from ‘drill, baby, drill’, why are there fewer oil rigs in the US?

The words ‘drill, baby, drill’ were writ ample crossed Donald Trump’s 2024 statesmanlike campaign, and the 3 words person since summarised the US President’s lipid and state policy.

The US’ lipid reserves arsenic of 2024 were estimated astatine 45 cardinal barrels, the ninth-largest largest reserves globally; meanwhile, its earthy state reserves stood astatine 322.2 trillion cubic feet, the fourth-largest globally. Since taking office, Trump has announced his ambition for much drilling to marque afloat usage of these resources.

However, information from Baker Hughes shows that the US lipid rig number has been successful dependable diminution since Trump’s inauguration.

The US rig number stood astatine 544 connected 26 November 2025, a diminution of 38 compared to 27 November 2024. In lipid specifically, the astir caller information showed that determination were 407 rigs, down from 477 the twelvemonth earlier – a diminution of 15%.

Yet the representation is somewhat muddled by accumulation levels, which person increased. US crude lipid accumulation reached a grounds precocious successful September 2025 astatine 13.84 cardinal barrels per time (mbbl/d), compared to 13.171mbbl/d successful September 2024.

According to investigation by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), “the accepted nexus betwixt rig enactment and output has weakened recently, with accumulation astatine grounds highs contempt reduced rig counts”.

Improvements successful drilling efficiency, integration of AI solutions and a absorption connected much productive plays has driven up productivity levels. However, productivity doesn’t needfully correlate to confidence, and the marketplace remains somewhat hesitant arsenic it feels retired Trump’s adjacent move.

Robert Kaufmann, Professor of Environmental Science astatine Boston University, explains that “any benignant of uncertainty increases the existent enactment worth of keeping the lipid successful the ground, which would thin to dilatory drilling”.

As productivity trends upwards and rig committedness downwards, the US lipid rig representation is progressively becoming 1 of contradictions, compounded by a backdrop of comparatively debased lipid prices and softening demand.

In brief, Trumpian argumentation is centred astir permitting reforms and reducing bureaucracy, and the medication has sought to incentivise home lipid producers.

Policies materialised quickly. On inauguration time (20 January 2025), Trump declared a nationalist vigor emergency, accompanied by an enforcement bid entitled 'Unleashing American Energy'. It directed that agencies would “suspend, revise, oregon rescind each bureau actions identified arsenic unduly burdensome” connected home lipid and state operations.

In April 2025, the US Department of the Interior announced exigency permitting procedures, reducing timelines (which usually instrumentality respective years) to a maximum of 28 days.